S5.1 Hypothesis-test language; correlation tests

Section
S5 Statistical hypothesis testing
Level
Partly A level only
Statement
Understand and apply the language of statistical hypothesis testing, developed through a binomial model: null hypothesis, alternative hypothesis, significance level, test statistic, 1-tail test, 2-tail test, critical value, critical region, acceptance region, p-value; extend to correlation coefficients as measures of how close data points lie to a straight line and be able to interpret a given correlation coefficient using a given p-value or critical value (calculation of correlation coefficients is excluded).
Guidance
An informal appreciation that the expected value of a binomial distribution is given by np may be required for a 2-tail test. Students should know that the product moment correlation coefficient r satisfies |r| ⩽ 1 and that a value of r = ±1 means the data points all lie on a straight line. Students will be expected to calculate a value of r using their calculator, but use of the formula is not required. Hypotheses should be stated in terms of ρ with a null hypothesis of ρ = 0, where ρ represents the population correlation coefficient. Tables of critical values or a p-value will be given.
A-level only
correlation coefficients: interpreting r with a p-value or critical value, hypotheses on ρ
Since 2018
35 parts, 85 marks · topic pages: Hypothesis testing, Discrete distributions and the binomial distribution, Correlation and regression, Normal distribution

Back to the checklist

June 2025 · AS Paper 2 (Statistics) · Q3(b)(i) 4 marks
Jayda believes that the true proportion of green counters in the bag is greater than 0.2 She takes a random sample of 40 counters from the bag, one at a time, with replacement. There are 11 green counters in her sample. (b) (i) Use a suitable test to assess Jayda’s belief. You should • state your hypotheses clearly • use a 5% level of significance • state the p‑value for the test (4)
June 2025 · AS Paper 2 (Statistics) · Q3(b)(ii) 2 marks
(ii) Find the acceptance region for the test in part (i). (2)
June 2025 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q3(b) 3 marks
Once every six months, the manufacturer tests whether the proportion of defective components has changed using hypotheses H0 : p = 0.015 and H1 : p ≠ 0.015 A random sample of 260 components is taken and 8 are found to be defective. (b) Using a 5% level of significance, complete the test. (3)
June 2025 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q4(e) 2 marks
The teacher used all the data for these variables from the large data set for Leeming in 2015, as a sample. The teacher calculated the product moment correlation coefficient for x and y to be – 0.160 In a suitable test to determine whether there is evidence to support the teacher’s claim, the p-value was 0.015 (e) Using a 5% level of significance, state the hypotheses and conclusion for this test. (2)
June 2024 · AS Paper 2 (Statistics) · Q4(b) 4 marks
Historical records show that the proportion of defective items produced by a machine is 0.12 Following a maintenance service of the machine, a random sample of 60 items is taken and 3 defective items are found. (b) Carry out a suitable test to determine whether the proportion of defective items produced by the machine has decreased following the maintenance service. You should state your hypotheses clearly and use a 5% level of significance. (4)
June 2024 · AS Paper 2 (Statistics) · Q4(c) 1 mark
(c) Write down the p-value for your test in part (b) (1)
June 2024 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q2(b) 3 marks
The product moment correlation coefficient between h and t is – 0.510 (b) Test whether or not there is evidence of a negative correlation between the height above the ground and the time during the flight. You should • state your hypotheses clearly • use a 5% level of significance • state the critical value used (3)
June 2024 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q4(a) 4 marks
4. The proportion of left-handed adults in a country is 10% Freya believes that the proportion of left-handed adults under the age of 25 in this country is different from 10% She takes a random sample of 40 adults under the age of 25 from this country to investigate her belief. (a) Find the critical region for a suitable test to assess Freya’s belief. You should • state your hypotheses clearly • use a 5% level of significance • state the probability of rejection in each tail (4)
June 2024 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q4(b) 1 mark
(b) Write down the actual significance level of your test in part (a) (1)
June 2023 · AS Paper 2 (Statistics) · Q4(a) 1 mark
4. Past information shows that 25% of adults in a large population have a particular allergy. Rylan believes that the proportion that has the allergy differs from 25% He takes a random sample of 50 adults from the population. Rylan carries out a test of the null hypothesis H0: p = 0.25 using a 5% level of significance. (a) Write down the alternative hypothesis for Rylan’s test. (1)
June 2023 · AS Paper 2 (Statistics) · Q4(b) 4 marks
(b) Find the critical region for this test. You should state the probability associated with each tail, which should be as close to 2.5% as possible. (4)
June 2023 · AS Paper 2 (Statistics) · Q4(c) 1 mark
(c) State the actual probability of incorrectly rejecting H0 for this test. (1)
June 2023 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q2(d) 4 marks
Kamil claims that the proportion of packets containing a prize is less than 1 A random sample of 110 packets is taken and 9 packets contain a prize. (d) Use a suitable test to assess Kamil’s claim. You should • state your hypotheses clearly • use a 5% level of significance (4)
June 2023 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q4(b) 4 marks
A student claimed that the mean height of adult men from region B of this country was different from the mean height of adult men from region A. A random sample of 52 adult men from region B had a mean height of 177.2 cm The student assumed that the standard deviation of heights of adult men was 6.8 cm both for region A and region B. (b) Use a suitable test to assess the student’s claim. You should • state your hypotheses clearly • use a 5% level of significance (4)
June 2023 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q4(c) 1 mark
(c) Find the p-value for the test in part (b) (1)
June 2022 · AS Paper 2 (Statistics) · Q2(b) 4 marks
Supplier B claims that when it supplies bags of sugar, the proportion of bags that are damp is less than 8% The manufacturer takes a random sample of 70 bags of sugar from supplier B and finds that only 2 of the bags are damp. (b) Carry out a suitable test to assess supplier B’s claim. You should state your hypotheses clearly and use a 10% level of significance. (4)
June 2022 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q4(a) 1 mark
4. A dentist knows from past records that 10% of customers arrive late for their appointment. A new manager believes that there has been a change in the proportion of customers who arrive late for their appointment. A random sample of 50 of the dentist's customers is taken. (a) Write down • a null hypothesis corresponding to no change in the proportion of customers who arrive late • an alternative hypothesis corresponding to the manager's belief (1)
June 2022 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q4(b) 3 marks
(b) Using a 5% level of significance, find the critical region for a two-tailed test of the null hypothesis in (a) You should state the probability of rejection in each tail, which should be less than 0.025 (3)
June 2022 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q4(c) 1 mark
(c) Find the actual level of significance of the test based on your critical region from part (b) (1)
June 2022 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q6(b) 3 marks
Anna codes the data using the formulae x = log10 m y = log10 h The product moment correlation coefficient between x and y is – 0.897 (b) Test whether or not there is significant evidence of a negative correlation between x and y You should • state your hypotheses clearly • use a 5% level of significance • state the critical value used (3)
Oct 2021 · AS Paper 2 (Statistics) · Q4(d) 4 marks
After several children have used beads from the sack, the nursery teacher decides to test whether or not the proportion of red beads in the sack has changed. She takes a random sample of 75 beads and finds 4 red beads. (d) Stating your hypotheses clearly, use a 5% significance level to carry out a suitable test for the teacher. (4)
Oct 2021 · AS Paper 2 (Statistics) · Q4(e) 1 mark
(e) Find the p‑value in this case. (1)
Oct 2021 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q2(c) 1 mark
The results from Marc’s random sample of 16 observations are given in the table below. x y (c) Use your calculator to find the product moment correlation coefficient between x and y for these data. (1)
Oct 2021 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q2(d) 3 marks
(d) Test whether or not there is evidence of a negative correlation between the number of letters in the last name and the number of letters in the first name. You should • state your hypotheses clearly • use a 5% level of significance (3)
Oct 2020 · AS Paper 2 (Statistics) · Q5(c) 4 marks
Rowan works in the same call centre as Afrika and believes he is a more successful salesperson. To check Rowan’s belief, Afrika monitors the next 35 sales calls Rowan makes and finds that 11 of the sales calls are successful. (c) Stating your hypotheses clearly test, at the 5% level of significance, whether or not there is evidence to support Rowan’s belief. (4)
Oct 2020 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q2(c) 3 marks
Stav believes that there is a correlation between Daily Total Sunshine and Daily Maximum Relative Humidity at Heathrow. He calculates the product moment correlation coefficient between these two variables for a random sample of 30 days and obtains r = -0.377 (c) Carry out a suitable test to investigate Stav’s belief at a 5% level of significance. State clearly ● your hypotheses ● your critical value (3)
Oct 2020 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q2(d) 1 mark
On a random day at Heathrow the Daily Maximum Relative Humidity was 97% (d) Comment on the number of hours of sunshine you would expect on that day, giving a reason for your answer. (1)
June 2019 · AS Paper 2 (Statistics) · Q5(a) 2 marks
5. Past records show that 15% of customers at a shop buy chocolate. The shopkeeper believes that moving the chocolate closer to the till will increase the proportion of customers buying chocolate. After moving the chocolate closer to the till, a random sample of 30 customers is taken and 8 of them are found to have bought chocolate. Julie carries out a hypothesis test, at the 5% level of significance, to test the shopkeeper’s belief. Julie’s hypothesis test is shown below. H0 : p = 0.15 H1 : p . 0.15 Let X = the number of customers who buy chocolate. X ~ B(30, 0.15) P(X = 8) = 0.0420 0.0420 : 0.05 so reject H0 There is sufficient evidence to suggest that the proportion of customers buying chocolate has increased. (a) Identify the first two errors that Julie has made in her hypothesis test. (2)
June 2019 · AS Paper 2 (Statistics) · Q5(c) 2 marks Hard
(c) Find, using a 5% level of significance, the critical region for a one-tailed test of the shopkeeper’s belief. The probability in the tail should be less than 0.05 (2)
June 2019 · AS Paper 2 (Statistics) · Q5(d) 1 mark Hard
(d) Find the actual level of significance of this test. (1)
June 2019 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q3(a) 3 marks
3. Barbara is investigating the relationship between average income (GDP per capita), x US dollars, and average annual carbon dioxide (CO,) emissions, y tonnes, for different countries. She takes a random sample of 24 countries and finds the product moment correlation coefficient between average annual CO, emissions and average income to be 0.446 (a) Stating your hypotheses clearly, test, at the 5% level of significance, whether or not the product moment correlation coefficient for all countries is greater than zero. 3)
June 2019 · Paper 3 (Statistics) · Q3(b) 1 mark
Barbara believes that a non-linear model would bea better fit to the data. She codes the data using the coding m = log,,x and c = log,,y and obtains the model c = -1.82 + 0.89m The product moment correlation coefficient between c and m is found to be 0.882 (b) Explain how this value supports Barbara’s belief. (1)
June 2018 · AS Paper 2 · Q3(b) 4 marks
Naasir claims he has a method to help him win more than 1 3 of the games. To test this claim, the three of them played the game again 32 times and Naasir won 16 of these games. (b) Stating your hypotheses clearly, test Naasir’s claim at the 5% level of significance. (4)
June 2018 · Paper 3 · Q2(a) 3 marks
2. Tessa owns a small clothes shop in a seaside town. She records the weekly sales figures, £ w, and the average weekly temperature, t °C, for 8 weeks during the summer. The product moment correlation coefficient for these data is -0.915 (a) Stating your hypotheses clearly and using a 5% level of significance, test whether or not the correlation between sales figures and average weekly temperature is negative. (3)
June 2018 · Paper 3 · Q2(c) 1 mark
Tessa suggests that a linear regression model could be used to model these data. (c) State, giving a reason, whether or not the correlation coefficient is consistent with Tessa’s suggestion. (1)

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